Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
