A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
